Papers I think about often

2025

• The Trouble with Rational Expectations in Heterogeneous Agent Models: A Challenge for Macroeconomics by Ben Moll
• Disagreement about Monetary Policy by Karthik Sastry
• Dynamic Causal Effects in a Nonlinear World: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly by Kolesár and Plagborg-Møller
• When do common time series estimands have nonparametric causal meaning? by Rambachan and Shephard
• Estimating nonlinear heterogeneous agent models with neural networks by Kase, Melosi, and Rottner
  • This paper could open up a new door of macroeconomic analysis. One thing that must be confronted though. Neural Nets are appealing to be global solvers, but solving over a large feasible set of parameters could be problematic, given non-smoothness in the equilibrium manifold. There is evidence (see here, here, here, and Section 5 here) that this is a problem in canonical models for ex ante reasonable combinations of parameters.

2023

• The Perceived Causes of Monetary Policy Surprises by Miguel Acosta

2022

• Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets by Caballero and Simsek